Pakistan may see a reduction of up to Rs5.49 per litre in petrol and diesel prices for the upcoming fortnight beginning January 16, in line with the recent decline in international oil benchmarks, according to industry estimates.

The projected price changes assume the continuation of prevailing petroleum levy (PL) and carbon surcharge (CSL) rates. At present, the government is collecting Rs82.12 per litre in PL and CSL on petrol and Rs77.91 per litre on high-speed diesel (HSD).

Based on calculations shared by oil marketing companies, petrol prices are expected to fall by roughly Rs4.59 per litre, while HSD may see a reduction of Rs2.70 per litre. Estimated downward revisions for other products include Rs1.82 per litre for kerosene and Rs2.08 per litre for light diesel oil (LDO).

If implemented in full, the price of petrol could decrease from Rs253.17 to around Rs248.58 per litre, and HSD from Rs257.08 to approximately Rs254.38 per litre. Kerosene would fall from Rs170.88 to Rs169.06 and LDO from Rs146.18 to Rs144.10 per litre, based on current assumptions.

The final pricing recommendation will be prepared on January 15 by the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) in coordination with relevant ministries and forwarded to the Petroleum Division for formal approval. The pricing decision will consider the government’s revenue targets for the current fiscal year, particularly from PL and CSL.

Internationally, benchmark rates have softened, with petrol quoted near USD 5.03 per barrel and HSD at USD 3.20 per barrel, contributing to the expected local price adjustments.

Earlier this month, the government reduced petrol and diesel prices effective January 1, 2026, cutting HSD by Rs8.57 per litre and petrol by Rs10.28 per litre.